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Ekhaya vs Mitundu Baptist — Super League 2026

Ekhaya
Ekhaya
Preview
12:30
Mitundu Baptist
Mitundu Baptist
12/19/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 24
59%
Ekhaya
model favours
59%28%13%
1–0
likely score
72%
under 2.5 goals
28%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ekhaya59%
×Draw28%
Mitundu Baptist13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ekhaya
1.36
Mitundu Baptist
0.47

Ekhaya creates 189% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ekhaya
1.53
Mitundu Baptist
0.40

allows per match

Ekhaya
0.53
Mitundu Baptist
1.20

finishing

Ekhaya+0.00on par
Mitundu Baptist+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekhaya ↓

Mitundu Baptist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Ekhaya or draw
87%
Ekhaya or Mitundu Baptist
72%
Draw or Mitundu Baptist
41%

Winning margin

Ekhaya wins by 2+
30%
Mitundu Baptist wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ekhaya 1+ goals
74%
Ekhaya 2+ goals
39%
Ekhaya 3+ goals
16%
Mitundu Baptist 1+ goals
37%
Mitundu Baptist 2+ goals
8%
Mitundu Baptist 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Ekhaya (draw refunded)
82%
Mitundu Baptist (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekhaya at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Mitundu Baptist away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekhaya attack 1.53 + Mitundu Baptist defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.36

Mitundu Baptist attack 0.40 + Ekhaya defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ekhaya scores more
59%
level
28%
Mitundu Baptist scores more
13%

Ekhaya at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ekhaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ekhaya
DWDWW
Baptist
DWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekhaya vs Mitundu Baptist — Match Preview

Ekhaya face Mitundu Baptist on December 19, 2026 in this Super League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.