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Ekhaya vs Kamuzu Barracks — Super League 2026

Ekhaya
Ekhaya
Preview
12:30
Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
10/10/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 16
50%
Ekhaya
model favours
50%29%22%

Ekhaya sit 5, Kamuzu Barracks 16 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
65%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ekhaya50%
×Draw29%
Kamuzu Barracks22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ekhaya
1.32
Kamuzu Barracks
0.77

Ekhaya creates 71% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 81 away

creates per match

Ekhaya
1.53
Kamuzu Barracks
1.00

allows per match

Ekhaya
0.53
Kamuzu Barracks
1.11

finishing

Ekhaya+0.00on par
Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekhaya ↓

Kamuzu Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ekhaya or draw
78%
Ekhaya or Kamuzu Barracks
71%
Draw or Kamuzu Barracks
50%

Winning margin

Ekhaya wins by 2+
23%
Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ekhaya 1+ goals
73%
Ekhaya 2+ goals
38%
Ekhaya 3+ goals
15%
Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
54%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
18%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ekhaya (draw refunded)
69%
Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekhaya at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Kamuzu Barracks away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekhaya attack 1.53 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.32

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.00 + Ekhaya defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ekhaya scores more
50%
level
29%
Kamuzu Barracks scores more
22%

Ekhaya at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ekhaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Ekhaya
DWDWW
Barracks
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekhaya vs Kamuzu Barracks — Match Preview

Ekhaya face Kamuzu Barracks on October 10, 2026 in this Super League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.