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Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Furth — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Eintracht Braunschweig
Eintracht Braunschweig
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
SpVgg Greuther Furth
SpVgg Greuther Furth
12/2/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 15Eintracht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Eintracht Braunschweig40%
×Draw25%
SpVgg Greuther Furth35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.44
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 120 away

creates per match

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.21
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.25

allows per match

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.39
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.68

finishing

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par
SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunschweig ↓

SpVgg Greuther Furth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunschweig or draw
65%
Eintracht Braunschweig or SpVgg Greuther Furth
75%
Draw or SpVgg Greuther Furth
60%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+
19%
SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals
76%
Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals
42%
Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals
18%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals
73%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals
38%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)
54%
SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunschweig at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.68 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.21 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.25 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more
40%
level
25%
SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more
35%

Eintracht Braunschweig at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Eintracht Braunschweig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Eintracht Braunschweig 0–1 SpVgg Greuther Furth

SpVgg Greuther Furth beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Eintracht-Stadion in Braunschweig.