Eintracht Braunschweig 1–0 FC Magdeburg

Eintracht Braunschweig

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Magdeburg

1/28/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 19Eintracht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Eintracht Braunschweig39%

×Draw25%

FC Magdeburg37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht BraunschweigExpected goals in this matchFC Magdeburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.45

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.50

FC Magdeburg

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 85 away

1.21

creates per match

1.51

1.39

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.21

FC Magdeburg

1.51

allows per match

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.39

FC Magdeburg

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par

FC Magdeburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunschweig ↓

FC Magdeburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunschweig or draw

63%

Eintracht Braunschweig or FC Magdeburg

75%

Draw or FC Magdeburg

61%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+

19%

FC Magdeburg wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals

78%

Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals

44%

Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals

19%

FC Magdeburg 1+ goals

77%

FC Magdeburg 2+ goals

42%

FC Magdeburg 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)

51%

FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunschweig at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

FC Magdeburg away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.78 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.21 + FC Magdeburg defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

FC Magdeburg attack 1.51 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more

39%

level

25%

FC Magdeburg scores more

37%

Eintracht Braunschweig at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Eintracht Braunschweig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff