Eintracht Braunsch U19 1–2 St. Pauli U19

Eintracht Braunsch U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

St. Pauli U19

K. Szczerba 50'

E. da Silva Moreira 79'

M. Nzontcha 32'

9/30/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 7Sportpark Kennel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Eintracht Braunsch U1937%

×Draw20%

St. Pauli U1943%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht Braunsch U19Expected goals in this matchSt. Pauli U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

2.27

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.12

St. Pauli U19

2.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 76 away

2.13

creates per match

2.05

2.50

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.13

St. Pauli U19

2.05

allows per match

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.50

St. Pauli U19

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Braunsch U19+0.00on par

St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunsch U19 ↓

St. Pauli U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunsch U19 or draw

57%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 or St. Pauli U19

80%

Draw or St. Pauli U19

63%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunsch U19 wins by 2+

20%

St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunsch U19 1+ goals

88%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 2+ goals

62%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 3+ goals

35%

St. Pauli U19 1+ goals

90%

St. Pauli U19 2+ goals

66%

St. Pauli U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunsch U19 (draw refunded)

47%

St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunsch U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 2.50 · 54 matches

St. Pauli U19 away — creates 2.05, concedes 2.11 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunsch U19 attack 2.13 + St. Pauli U19 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.12

St. Pauli U19 attack 2.05 + Eintracht Braunsch U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Eintracht Braunsch U19 scores more

37%

level

20%

St. Pauli U19 scores more

43%

St. Pauli U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "St. Pauli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

M. Nzontcha

46'

J. Soetebeer← L. Grobauer

46'

N. Prabakaran← O. Backfisch

50'

K. Szczerba

60'

E. da Silva Moreira← L. Jahraus

70'

T. Mahnel← O. Backhaus

79'

E. da Silva Moreira

80'

E. Karepi← L. Marheineke

81'

J. Archard← M. Nzontcha

81'

J. Oguazu← T. Hoffmann

81'

M. Mbodje← N. Kretschmar

87'

O. Bosacki← K. Szczerba

Eintracht

St.

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Szczerba

Manager: J. Stephan

46'▲J. Soetebeer←▼L. Grobauer

46'▲N. Prabakaran←▼O. Backfisch

80'▲E. Karepi←▼L. Marheineke

87'▲O. Bosacki←▼K. Szczerba

Eintracht Braunsch U19 substitutes

SoetebeerPrabakaranKarepiBosackiLazicStrauchKübler

Manager: B. Hoose

60'▲E. da Silva Moreira←▼L. Jahraus

70'▲T. Mahnel←▼O. Backhaus

81'▲J. Archard←▼M. Nzontcha

81'▲J. Oguazu←▼T. Hoffmann

81'▲M. Mbodje←▼N. Kretschmar

St. Pauli U19 substitutes

MoreiraMahnelArchardOguazuMbodjeTempel

U19 Bundesliga: Eintracht Braunsch U19 1–2 St. Pauli U19

St. Pauli U19 beat Eintracht Braunsch U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 30, 2023.

Goals: M. Nzontcha (32'), K. Szczerba (50'), E. da Silva Moreira (79').

The match was played at Sportpark Kennel in Braunschweig.

Eintracht Braunsch U19 vs St. Pauli U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Eintracht Braunsch U19 1–2 St. Pauli U19