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Eintracht Bamberg vs Würzburger FV — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
Preview
16:30
Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
8/21/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 7
60%
Eintracht Bamberg
model favours
60%21%19%

Eintracht Bamberg raise their game against the top half — 56% wins vs the upper half, only 50% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Eintracht Bamberg60%
×Draw21%
Würzburger FV19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Bamberg
2.10
Würzburger FV
1.11

Eintracht Bamberg creates 89% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 68 away

creates per match

Eintracht Bamberg
2.21
Würzburger FV
1.31

allows per match

Eintracht Bamberg
0.91
Würzburger FV
2.00

finishing

Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par
Würzburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Bamberg ↓

Würzburger FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Eintracht Bamberg or draw
81%
Eintracht Bamberg or Würzburger FV
79%
Draw or Würzburger FV
40%

Winning margin

Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
37%
Würzburger FV wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
88%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
62%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
35%
Würzburger FV 1+ goals
67%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
30%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
75%
Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Bamberg at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Würzburger FV away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Bamberg attack 2.21 + Würzburger FV defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.10

Würzburger FV attack 1.31 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Eintracht Bamberg scores more
60%
level
21%
Würzburger FV scores more
19%

Eintracht Bamberg at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Eintracht Bamberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Bamberg
LWDL
FV
DLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eintracht Bamberg face Würzburger FV (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Eintracht Bamberg hosting Würzburger FV. Match starts August 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.