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Eintracht Bamberg vs Weiden — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
Preview
16:30
Weiden
Weiden
7/21/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 1
57%
Eintracht Bamberg
model favours
57%22%21%

Eintracht Bamberg raise their game against the top half — 56% wins vs the upper half, only 50% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Eintracht Bamberg57%
×Draw22%
Weiden21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Bamberg
1.98
Weiden
1.11

Eintracht Bamberg creates 78% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 50 away

creates per match

Eintracht Bamberg
2.21
Weiden
1.32

allows per match

Eintracht Bamberg
0.91
Weiden
1.76

finishing

Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par
Weiden+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Bamberg ↓

Weiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Eintracht Bamberg or draw
79%
Eintracht Bamberg or Weiden
78%
Draw or Weiden
43%

Winning margin

Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
34%
Weiden wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
86%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
59%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
31%
Weiden 1+ goals
67%
Weiden 2+ goals
30%
Weiden 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
73%
Weiden (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Bamberg at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Weiden away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.76 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Bamberg attack 2.21 + Weiden defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.98

Weiden attack 1.32 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Eintracht Bamberg scores more
57%
level
22%
Weiden scores more
21%

Eintracht Bamberg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Eintracht Bamberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Bamberg
LWDL
Weiden
LWDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Eintracht Bamberg host Weiden

July 21, 2026: Eintracht Bamberg take on Weiden in Oberliga - Bayern Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.