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Eintracht Bamberg vs Ingolstadt II — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
Preview
12:00
Ingolstadt II
Ingolstadt II
9/5/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 9
50%
Eintracht Bamberg
model favours
50%22%28%

Eintracht Bamberg raise their game against the top half — 56% wins vs the upper half, only 50% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Eintracht Bamberg50%
×Draw22%
Ingolstadt II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Bamberg
1.89
Ingolstadt II
1.35

Eintracht Bamberg creates 40% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 51 away

creates per match

Eintracht Bamberg
2.21
Ingolstadt II
1.80

allows per match

Eintracht Bamberg
0.91
Ingolstadt II
1.57

finishing

Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par
Ingolstadt II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Bamberg ↓

Ingolstadt II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Eintracht Bamberg or draw
72%
Eintracht Bamberg or Ingolstadt II
78%
Draw or Ingolstadt II
50%

Winning margin

Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
28%
Ingolstadt II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
85%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
56%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
29%
Ingolstadt II 1+ goals
74%
Ingolstadt II 2+ goals
39%
Ingolstadt II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
65%
Ingolstadt II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Bamberg at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Ingolstadt II away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Bamberg attack 2.21 + Ingolstadt II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.89

Ingolstadt II attack 1.80 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Eintracht Bamberg scores more
50%
level
22%
Ingolstadt II scores more
28%

Eintracht Bamberg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Eintracht Bamberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Bamberg
LWDL
II
LWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eintracht Bamberg vs Ingolstadt II — Match Preview

Eintracht Bamberg face Ingolstadt II on September 5, 2026 in this Oberliga - Bayern Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.