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Eintracht Bamberg vs Großbardorf — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
Preview
12:00
Großbardorf
Großbardorf
4/17/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 28
60%
Eintracht Bamberg
model favours
60%20%20%

Großbardorf win just 11% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eintracht Bamberg60%
×Draw20%
Großbardorf20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Bamberg
2.17
Großbardorf
1.16

Eintracht Bamberg creates 87% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 17 away

creates per match

Eintracht Bamberg
2.21
Großbardorf
1.41

allows per match

Eintracht Bamberg
0.91
Großbardorf
2.12

finishing

Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par
Großbardorf+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Bamberg ↓

Großbardorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Eintracht Bamberg or draw
80%
Eintracht Bamberg or Großbardorf
80%
Draw or Großbardorf
40%

Winning margin

Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
37%
Großbardorf wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
89%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
64%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
36%
Großbardorf 1+ goals
69%
Großbardorf 2+ goals
32%
Großbardorf 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
75%
Großbardorf (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Bamberg at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Großbardorf away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Bamberg attack 2.21 + Großbardorf defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.17

Großbardorf attack 1.41 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Eintracht Bamberg scores more
60%
level
20%
Großbardorf scores more
20%

Eintracht Bamberg at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Eintracht Bamberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Bamberg
LWDL
Großbardorf
WWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Eintracht Bamberg host Großbardorf

April 17, 2027: Eintracht Bamberg take on Großbardorf in Oberliga - Bayern Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.