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Eimsbütteler TV vs Niendorfer TSV — Oberliga - Hamburg 2026

Eimsbütteler TV
Eimsbütteler TV
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Niendorfer TSV
Niendorfer TSV
E. Toremis 63'
J. Asare 29'
H. Merkle 89'
A. M. Janha 39', 2'
4/28/2023Oberliga - HamburgOberliga - Hamburg · Hamburg - 37ETV-Sportzentrum Hoheluft

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Eimsbütteler TV50%
×Draw21%
Niendorfer TSV29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eimsbütteler TV
2.13
Niendorfer TSV
1.60

Eimsbütteler TV creates 33% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 18 away

creates per match

Eimsbütteler TV
2.55
Niendorfer TSV
1.94

allows per match

Eimsbütteler TV
1.27
Niendorfer TSV
1.72

finishing

Eimsbütteler TV+0.00on par
Niendorfer TSV+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eimsbütteler TV ↓

Niendorfer TSV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Eimsbütteler TV or draw
71%
Eimsbütteler TV or Niendorfer TSV
79%
Draw or Niendorfer TSV
50%

Winning margin

Eimsbütteler TV wins by 2+
29%
Niendorfer TSV wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Eimsbütteler TV 1+ goals
88%
Eimsbütteler TV 2+ goals
63%
Eimsbütteler TV 3+ goals
35%
Niendorfer TSV 1+ goals
80%
Niendorfer TSV 2+ goals
47%
Niendorfer TSV 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Eimsbütteler TV (draw refunded)
63%
Niendorfer TSV (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eimsbütteler TV at home — creates 2.55, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Niendorfer TSV away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eimsbütteler TV attack 2.55 + Niendorfer TSV defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.13

Niendorfer TSV attack 1.94 + Eimsbütteler TV defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Eimsbütteler TV scores more
50%
level
21%
Niendorfer TSV scores more
29%

Eimsbütteler TV at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Eimsbütteler TV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
A. M. Janha
29'
J. Asare
39'
A. M. Janha
63'
E. Toremis
89'
H. Merkle

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hamburg: Eimsbütteler TV 2–3 Niendorfer TSV

Niendorfer TSV beat Eimsbütteler TV 3-2 in Oberliga - Hamburg on April 28, 2023.

Goals: A. M. Janha (2', 39'), J. Asare (29'), E. Toremis (63'), H. Merkle (89').

The match was played at ETV-Sportzentrum Hoheluft in Hamburg.