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EIF vs SJK Akatemia — Ykkösliiga 2026

EIF
EIF
Preview
12:00
SJK Akatemia
SJK Akatemia
9/26/2026YkkösliigaYkkösliiga · Group StageTammisaari Keskuskentta
Big match
52%
EIF
model favours
52%22%26%

SJK Akatemia score first in only 14% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

EIF52%
×Draw22%
SJK Akatemia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EIF
1.92
SJK Akatemia
1.29

EIF creates 49% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 35 away

creates per match

EIF
2.00
SJK Akatemia
1.14

allows per match

EIF
1.45
SJK Akatemia
1.83

finishing

EIF+0.00on par
SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EIF ↓

SJK Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

EIF or draw
74%
EIF or SJK Akatemia
78%
Draw or SJK Akatemia
48%

Winning margin

EIF wins by 2+
30%
SJK Akatemia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

EIF 1+ goals
85%
EIF 2+ goals
57%
EIF 3+ goals
30%
SJK Akatemia 1+ goals
72%
SJK Akatemia 2+ goals
37%
SJK Akatemia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

EIF (draw refunded)
67%
SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EIF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

SJK Akatemia away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EIF attack 2.00 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

SJK Akatemia attack 1.14 + EIF defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

EIF scores more
52%
level
22%
SJK Akatemia scores more
26%

EIF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "EIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • EIF score first in only 32% of matches
  • EIF have won 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • 68% of EIF’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • SJK Akatemia win just 19% of their away games
  • 35% of SJK Akatemia’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 30% of EIF’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
EIF
DLLLD
Akatemia
DDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

EIF vs SJK Akatemia — Match Preview

EIF face SJK Akatemia on September 26, 2026 in this Ykkösliiga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

EIF host SJK Akatemia at Tammisaari Keskuskentta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.