Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

EIF vs Kooteepee — Suomen Cup 2018

EIF
EIF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kooteepee
Kooteepee
2/16/2019Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 4Ekenäs Centrumplan (Tammisaari)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

EIF11%
×Draw14%
Kooteepee75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EIF
1.13
Kooteepee
3.04

Kooteepee creates 169% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

EIF
1.14
Kooteepee
4.07

allows per match

EIF
2.00
Kooteepee
1.13

finishing

EIF+0.00on par
Kooteepee+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EIF ↓

Kooteepee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

EIF or draw
25%
EIF or Kooteepee
86%
Draw or Kooteepee
89%

Winning margin

EIF wins by 2+
4%
Kooteepee wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

EIF 1+ goals
68%
EIF 2+ goals
31%
EIF 3+ goals
11%
Kooteepee 1+ goals
95%
Kooteepee 2+ goals
80%
Kooteepee 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

EIF (draw refunded)
13%
Kooteepee (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EIF at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

Kooteepee away — creates 4.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EIF attack 1.14 + Kooteepee defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Kooteepee attack 4.07 + EIF defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

EIF scores more
11%
level
14%
Kooteepee scores more
75%

Kooteepee at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Kooteepee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

EIF 1 – 0 Kooteepee

EIF beat Kooteepee 1-0 in Suomen Cup on February 16, 2019.

The match was played at Ekenäs Centrumplan (Tammisaari).