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EIF vs Inter Turku — Suomen Cup 2018

EIF
EIF
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 4
Inter Turku
Inter Turkuadvanced
4/3/2018Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Semi-finalsEkenäs Centrumplan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

EIF17%
×Draw20%
Inter Turku63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EIF
1.00
Inter Turku
2.12

Inter Turku creates 112% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 22 away

creates per match

EIF
1.14
Inter Turku
2.23

allows per match

EIF
2.00
Inter Turku
0.86

finishing

EIF+0.00on par
Inter Turku+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EIF ↓

Inter Turku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

EIF or draw
37%
EIF or Inter Turku
80%
Draw or Inter Turku
83%

Winning margin

EIF wins by 2+
6%
Inter Turku wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

EIF 1+ goals
63%
EIF 2+ goals
26%
EIF 3+ goals
8%
Inter Turku 1+ goals
88%
Inter Turku 2+ goals
62%
Inter Turku 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

EIF (draw refunded)
21%
Inter Turku (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EIF at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

Inter Turku away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EIF attack 1.14 + Inter Turku defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.00

Inter Turku attack 2.23 + EIF defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

EIF scores more
17%
level
20%
Inter Turku scores more
63%

Inter Turku at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: EIF 0–5 Inter Turku

Inter Turku beat EIF 5-0 in Suomen Cup on April 3, 2018.

The match was played at Ekenäs Centrumplan in Tammisaari.