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EIF vs Haka — Ykkösliiga 2026

EIF
EIF
Preview
12:00
Haka
Haka
9/12/2026YkkösliigaYkkösliiga · Group StageTammisaari Keskuskentta
Big match
38%
EIF
model favours
38%26%36%

EIF score first in only 32% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

EIF38%
×Draw26%
Haka36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EIF
1.35
Haka
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 7 away

creates per match

EIF
2.00
Haka
1.14

allows per match

EIF
1.45
Haka
0.71

finishing

EIF+0.00on par
Haka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 51Over: 4951%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EIF ↓

Haka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

EIF or draw
64%
EIF or Haka
74%
Draw or Haka
62%

Winning margin

EIF wins by 2+
17%
Haka wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

EIF 1+ goals
74%
EIF 2+ goals
39%
EIF 3+ goals
15%
Haka 1+ goals
72%
Haka 2+ goals
37%
Haka 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

EIF (draw refunded)
52%
Haka (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EIF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

Haka away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EIF attack 2.00 + Haka defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Haka attack 1.14 + EIF defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

EIF scores more
38%
level
26%
Haka scores more
36%

EIF at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "EIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (68% and 69% over 2.5)
  • Haka have won 7 of the last 9 meetings
  • 69% of Haka’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 68% of EIF’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • EIF win just 12% against the top half (vs 68% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 9 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
EIF
DLLLD
Haka
WDWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

EIF face Haka (Ykkösliiga)

Ykkösliiga returns with EIF hosting Haka. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

EIF host Haka at Tammisaari Keskuskentta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.