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EIF vs Haka — Suomen Cup 2018

EIF
EIFadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Haka
Haka
3/29/2018Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Quarter-finalsEkenäs Centrumplan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

EIF15%
×Draw19%
Haka66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EIF
0.97
Haka
2.24

Haka creates 131% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 25 away

creates per match

EIF
1.14
Haka
2.48

allows per match

EIF
2.00
Haka
0.80

finishing

EIF+0.00on par
Haka+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EIF ↓

Haka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

EIF or draw
34%
EIF or Haka
81%
Draw or Haka
85%

Winning margin

EIF wins by 2+
5%
Haka wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

EIF 1+ goals
62%
EIF 2+ goals
25%
EIF 3+ goals
7%
Haka 1+ goals
89%
Haka 2+ goals
65%
Haka 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

EIF (draw refunded)
19%
Haka (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EIF at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

Haka away — creates 2.48, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EIF attack 1.14 + Haka defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.97

Haka attack 2.48 + EIF defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

EIF scores more
15%
level
19%
Haka scores more
66%

Haka at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: EIF 2–1 Haka

EIF beat Haka 2-1 in Suomen Cup on March 29, 2018.

The match was played at Ekenäs Centrumplan in Tammisaari.