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EIF vs AC Oulu — Suomen Cup 2018

EIF
EIF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AC Oulu
AC Oulu
3/17/2018Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Play-offsEkenäs Centrumplan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

EIF19%
×Draw20%
AC Oulu61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EIF
1.09
AC Oulu
2.13

AC Oulu creates 95% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 22 away

creates per match

EIF
1.14
AC Oulu
2.27

allows per match

EIF
2.00
AC Oulu
1.05

finishing

EIF+0.00on par
AC Oulu+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EIF ↓

AC Oulu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

EIF or draw
39%
EIF or AC Oulu
80%
Draw or AC Oulu
81%

Winning margin

EIF wins by 2+
7%
AC Oulu wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

EIF 1+ goals
66%
EIF 2+ goals
30%
EIF 3+ goals
10%
AC Oulu 1+ goals
88%
AC Oulu 2+ goals
63%
AC Oulu 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

EIF (draw refunded)
23%
AC Oulu (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EIF at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

AC Oulu away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EIF attack 1.14 + AC Oulu defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

AC Oulu attack 2.27 + EIF defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

EIF scores more
19%
level
20%
AC Oulu scores more
61%

AC Oulu at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "AC Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EIF vs AC Oulu

EIF beat AC Oulu 1-0 in Suomen Cup on March 17, 2018.

The match was played at Ekenäs Centrumplan in Tammisaari.