Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Eibar W vs Real Madrid W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Eibar W
Eibar W
Preview
16:00
Real Madrid W
Real Madrid W
3/14/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 22Estadio Municipal de Ipurua
Big match
61%
Real Madrid W
model favours
17%21%61%

Real Madrid W have won 9 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Eibar W17%
×Draw21%
Real Madrid W61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eibar W
0.92
Real Madrid W
1.96

Real Madrid W creates 113% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 92 away

creates per match

Eibar W
0.92
Real Madrid W
2.29

allows per match

Eibar W
1.62
Real Madrid W
0.92

finishing

Eibar W+0.00on par
Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar W ↓

Real Madrid W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Eibar W or draw
39%
Eibar W or Real Madrid W
79%
Draw or Real Madrid W
83%

Winning margin

Eibar W wins by 2+
6%
Real Madrid W wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Eibar W 1+ goals
60%
Eibar W 2+ goals
23%
Eibar W 3+ goals
7%
Real Madrid W 1+ goals
86%
Real Madrid W 2+ goals
58%
Real Madrid W 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Eibar W (draw refunded)
22%
Real Madrid W (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar W at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.62 · 77 matches

Real Madrid W away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar W attack 0.92 + Real Madrid W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.92

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Eibar W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Eibar W scores more
17%
level
21%
Real Madrid W scores more
61%

Real Madrid W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Eibar W win just 11% against the top half (vs 45% against the bottom)
  • Style contrast — Eibar W play Direct / counter-attacking, Real Madrid W Possession-dominant
  • Eibar W sit 13, Real Madrid W 2 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Eibar W
Direct / counter-attacking
Real Madrid W
Possession-dominant
31%Possession59%
57%Pass accuracy83%
8.9ShotsBiggest gap17.5
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Eibar WReal Madrid W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Eibar W
0
Draws
9
Real Madrid W
Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 20%
0–10–30–31–00–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WDWLW
W
WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eibar W vs Real Madrid W — Match Preview

Eibar W face Real Madrid W on March 14, 2027 in this Primera División Femenina fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Eibar W host Real Madrid W at Estadio Municipal de Ipurua.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.