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Eibar W vs Madrid CFF W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Eibar W
Eibar W
Preview
16:00
Madrid CFF W
Madrid CFF W
10/25/2026Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 8Estadio Municipal de Ipurua
Big match
38%
Eibar W
model favours
38%24%38%

Madrid CFF W have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Eibar W38%
×Draw24%
Madrid CFF W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eibar W
1.52
Madrid CFF W
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 119 away

creates per match

Eibar W
0.92
Madrid CFF W
1.44

allows per match

Eibar W
1.62
Madrid CFF W
2.13

finishing

Eibar W+0.00on par
Madrid CFF W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar W ↓

Madrid CFF W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Eibar W or draw
62%
Eibar W or Madrid CFF W
76%
Draw or Madrid CFF W
62%

Winning margin

Eibar W wins by 2+
18%
Madrid CFF W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Eibar W 1+ goals
78%
Eibar W 2+ goals
45%
Eibar W 3+ goals
20%
Madrid CFF W 1+ goals
78%
Madrid CFF W 2+ goals
45%
Madrid CFF W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Eibar W (draw refunded)
50%
Madrid CFF W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar W at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.62 · 77 matches

Madrid CFF W away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar W attack 0.92 + Madrid CFF W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.52

Madrid CFF W attack 1.44 + Eibar W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Eibar W scores more
38%
level
24%
Madrid CFF W scores more
38%

Eibar W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Eibar W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • Style contrast — Eibar W play Direct / counter-attacking, Madrid CFF W Possession-dominant

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Eibar W
Direct / counter-attacking
Madrid CFF W
Possession-dominant
33%PossessionBiggest gap55%
58%Pass accuracy77%
9.0Shots13.8
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Eibar WMadrid CFF W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Eibar W
0
Draws
7
Madrid CFF W
Avg goals: 3.3BTTS: 80%
1–30–11–21–22–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WDWLW
W
LWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Eibar W host Madrid CFF W

October 25, 2026: Eibar W take on Madrid CFF W in Primera División Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Eibar W host Madrid CFF W at Estadio Municipal de Ipurua.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.