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Eibar W vs FC Levante Badalona W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Eibar W
Eibar W
Preview
15:00
FC Levante Badalona W
FC Levante Badalona W
9/13/2026Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 3Estadio Municipal de Ipurua
Big match
41%
Eibar W
model favours
41%26%33%
1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Eibar W41%
×Draw26%
FC Levante Badalona W33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eibar W
1.44
FC Levante Badalona W
1.25

Eibar W creates 15% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 60 away

creates per match

Eibar W
0.92
FC Levante Badalona W
0.88

allows per match

Eibar W
1.62
FC Levante Badalona W
1.95

finishing

Eibar W+0.00on par
FC Levante Badalona W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar W ↓

FC Levante Badalona W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Eibar W or draw
67%
Eibar W or FC Levante Badalona W
74%
Draw or FC Levante Badalona W
59%

Winning margin

Eibar W wins by 2+
20%
FC Levante Badalona W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Eibar W 1+ goals
76%
Eibar W 2+ goals
42%
Eibar W 3+ goals
18%
FC Levante Badalona W 1+ goals
71%
FC Levante Badalona W 2+ goals
36%
FC Levante Badalona W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Eibar W (draw refunded)
56%
FC Levante Badalona W (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar W at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.62 · 77 matches

FC Levante Badalona W away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.95 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar W attack 0.92 + FC Levante Badalona W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.44

FC Levante Badalona W attack 0.88 + Eibar W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Eibar W scores more
41%
level
26%
FC Levante Badalona W scores more
33%

Eibar W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Eibar W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
WDWLW
W
WLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eibar W vs FC Levante Badalona W — Match Preview

Eibar W face FC Levante Badalona W on September 13, 2026 in this Primera División Femenina fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Eibar W host FC Levante Badalona W at Estadio Municipal de Ipurua.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.