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Eibar W vs Barcelona W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Eibar W
Eibar W
Preview
16:00
Barcelona W
Barcelona W
1/10/2027Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 15Estadio Municipal de Ipurua
Big match
80%
Barcelona W
model favours
7%13%80%

Barcelona W have won 10 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

0–2
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Eibar W7%
×Draw13%
Barcelona W80%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eibar W
0.63
Barcelona W
2.66

Barcelona W creates 322% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 119 away

creates per match

Eibar W
0.92
Barcelona W
3.70

allows per match

Eibar W
1.62
Barcelona W
0.34

finishing

Eibar W+0.00on par
Barcelona W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar W ↓

Barcelona W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–213%
0–312%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Eibar W or draw
20%
Eibar W or Barcelona W
87%
Draw or Barcelona W
93%

Winning margin

Eibar W wins by 2+
2%
Barcelona W wins by 2+
59%

Team goals

Eibar W 1+ goals
47%
Eibar W 2+ goals
13%
Eibar W 3+ goals
3%
Barcelona W 1+ goals
93%
Barcelona W 2+ goals
74%
Barcelona W 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Eibar W (draw refunded)
8%
Barcelona W (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar W at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.62 · 77 matches

Barcelona W away — creates 3.70, concedes 0.34 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar W attack 0.92 + Barcelona W defence 0.34 → ÷2 → 0.63

Barcelona W attack 3.70 + Eibar W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Eibar W scores more
7%
level
13%
Barcelona W scores more
80%

Barcelona W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Eibar W win just 11% against the top half (vs 45% against the bottom)
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 5.3 goals
  • Style contrast — Eibar W play Direct / counter-attacking, Barcelona W Possession-dominant
  • Eibar W sit 13, Barcelona W 1 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Eibar W
Direct / counter-attacking
Barcelona W
Possession-dominant
33%Possession73%
58%Pass accuracy89%
9.0ShotsBiggest gap26.0
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Eibar WBarcelona W

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

0
Eibar W
0
Draws
10
Barcelona W
Avg goals: 5.3BTTS: 20%
0–40–41–80–40–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WDWLW
W
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Eibar W host Barcelona W

January 10, 2027: Eibar W take on Barcelona W in Primera División Femenina. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Eibar W host Barcelona W at Estadio Municipal de Ipurua.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.