Eibar W 2–5 Athletic Club W: Result & Stats

Eibar W

FT

2 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Athletic Club W

4/17/2021

Primera División Femenina · Round 26Instalaciones de Unbe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Eibar W33%

×Draw26%

Athletic Club W41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eibar WExpected goals in this matchAthletic Club W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.42

Eibar W

1.24

Athletic Club W

1.42

Athletic Club W creates 15% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 120 away

0.92

creates per match

1.21

1.62

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Eibar W

0.92

Athletic Club W

1.21

allows per match

Eibar W

1.62

Athletic Club W

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eibar W+0.00on par

Athletic Club W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar W ↓

Athletic Club W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Eibar W or draw

59%

Eibar W or Athletic Club W

74%

Draw or Athletic Club W

67%

Winning margin

Eibar W wins by 2+

14%

Athletic Club W wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Eibar W 1+ goals

71%

Eibar W 2+ goals

35%

Eibar W 3+ goals

13%

Athletic Club W 1+ goals

76%

Athletic Club W 2+ goals

41%

Athletic Club W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Eibar W (draw refunded)

44%

Athletic Club W (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar W at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.62 · 77 matches

Athletic Club W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar W attack 0.92 + Athletic Club W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.24

Athletic Club W attack 1.21 + Eibar W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Eibar W scores more

33%

level

26%

Athletic Club W scores more

41%

Athletic Club W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Athletic Club W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff