Eibar 0–0 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Eibar

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mirandes

10/10/2022

Segunda División · Round 9Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Eibar55%

×Draw23%

Mirandes22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EibarExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.06

Eibar

1.83

Mirandes

1.06

Eibar creates 73% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

2.23

creates per match

1.05

1.07

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Eibar

2.23

Mirandes

1.05

allows per match

Eibar

1.07

Mirandes

1.44

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Eibar-0.10scores less

Mirandes+0.08on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Eibar or draw

78%

Eibar or Mirandes

77%

Draw or Mirandes

45%

Winning margin

Eibar wins by 2+

31%

Mirandes wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Eibar 1+ goals

84%

Eibar 2+ goals

54%

Eibar 3+ goals

28%

Mirandes 1+ goals

65%

Mirandes 2+ goals

29%

Mirandes 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Eibar (draw refunded)

72%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.07 · 8 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar attack 2.23 + Mirandes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.83

Mirandes attack 1.05 + Eibar defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Eibar scores more

55%

level

23%

Mirandes scores more

22%

Eibar at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Eibar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Álvaro Tejero

Eibar · D

8.2

Match Events

64'

Vadillo← José Corpas

65'

Ángel Troncho← Y. Rahmani

67'

Marcos Paulo← Óscar Pinchi

76'

Juanlu Sánchez← Roberto López

76'

Manu García← Oriol Rey

77'

Matheus Pereira

77'

Jon Bautista← G. Blanco

86'

Javi Serrano← Beñat Prados

87'

S. Mráz← Raúl García

88'

Raúl Navas

89'

Quique González← Stoichkov

90+4'

Álvaro Vadillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EibarMirandes

Overview

52%Possession48%

16Total Shots12

3Corners3

9Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots12

5On Target4

6Off Target4

5Blocked4

9Inside Box7

7Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

422Total Passes404

324Accurate Passes303

77%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides0

Segunda División: Eibar 0–0 Mirandes

Eibar and Mirandes drew 0-0 in Segunda División on October 10, 2022.

Eibar controlled possession (52%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa in Eibar.

Eibar vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Eibar 0–0 Mirandes