Eibar 1–1 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Eibar

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mirandes

Stoichkov 49' (pen)

Alejandro Marqués 79'

4/3/2022

Segunda División · Round 34Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Eibar55%

×Draw23%

Mirandes22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EibarExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.06

Eibar

1.83

Mirandes

1.06

Eibar creates 73% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

2.23

creates per match

1.05

1.07

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Eibar

2.23

Mirandes

1.05

allows per match

Eibar

1.07

Mirandes

1.44

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Eibar-0.10scores less

Mirandes+0.08on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Eibar or draw

78%

Eibar or Mirandes

77%

Draw or Mirandes

45%

Winning margin

Eibar wins by 2+

31%

Mirandes wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Eibar 1+ goals

84%

Eibar 2+ goals

54%

Eibar 3+ goals

28%

Mirandes 1+ goals

65%

Mirandes 2+ goals

29%

Mirandes 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Eibar (draw refunded)

72%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.07 · 8 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar attack 2.23 + Mirandes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.83

Mirandes attack 1.05 + Eibar defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Eibar scores more

55%

level

23%

Mirandes scores more

22%

Eibar at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Eibar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Víctor Meseguer

Mirandes · M

7.9

Match Events

18'

Antonio Cristian← Rober Correa

35'

Rodrigo RiquelmeGoal cancelled

49'

StoichkovPenalty

50'

Sergio Camello

62'

Llorente← Fran Sol

62'

Quique González← Stoichkov

68'

Alejandro Marqués← Brugui

68'

H. Hassan← Iñigo Vicente

73'

Cristian Glauder

79'

W. Tchimbembé← Álex López

79'

Alejandro Marqués↳ Rodrigo Riquelme

83'

Jon Garrido← Sergio Camello

87'

Ager Aketxe← Edu Expósito

87'

Chema Rodríguez← Miguel Atienza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EibarMirandes

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots15

6Corners10

15Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots15

4On Target4

6Off Target8

2Blocked3

6Inside Box10

6Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

372Total Passes498

250Accurate Passes385

67%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides5