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Eibar vs Mallorca — Segunda División 2018

Eibar
Eibar
Preview
15:00
Mallorca
Mallorca
10/18/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 10Estadio Municipal de Ipurua
45%
Eibar
model favours
45%29%26%

Mallorca have won 3 of the last 3 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Eibar45%
×Draw29%
Mallorca26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eibar
1.24
Mallorca
0.88

Eibar creates 41% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 45 away

creates per match

Eibar
1.56
Mallorca
0.93

allows per match

Eibar
0.82
Mallorca
0.91

finishing

Eibar+0.00on par
Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar ↓

Mallorca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Eibar or draw
74%
Eibar or Mallorca
71%
Draw or Mallorca
55%

Winning margin

Eibar wins by 2+
20%
Mallorca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Eibar 1+ goals
71%
Eibar 2+ goals
35%
Eibar 3+ goals
13%
Mallorca 1+ goals
59%
Mallorca 2+ goals
22%
Mallorca 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Eibar (draw refunded)
63%
Mallorca (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar attack 1.56 + Mallorca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.24

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Eibar defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Eibar scores more
45%
level
29%
Mallorca scores more
26%

Eibar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Eibar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Mallorca win just 11% of their away games
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 3 meetings
  • 30% of Mallorca’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Eibar
DLWLW
Mallorca
WLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Eibar host Mallorca

October 18, 2026: Eibar take on Mallorca in Segunda División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Eibar host Mallorca at Estadio Municipal de Ipurua.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.