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Eibar vs Elche — La Liga 2026

Eibar
Eibar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Elche
Elche
L. Boyé 37'
9/30/2020La LigaLa Liga · Round 4Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Eibar50%
×Draw26%
Elche24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eibar
1.54
Elche
0.99

Eibar creates 56% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 76 away

creates per match

Eibar
1.24
Elche
0.83

allows per match

Eibar
1.15
Elche
1.83

finishing

Eibar+0.00on par
Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar ↓

Elche →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Eibar or draw
76%
Eibar or Elche
74%
Draw or Elche
50%

Winning margin

Eibar wins by 2+
26%
Elche wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Eibar 1+ goals
79%
Eibar 2+ goals
45%
Eibar 3+ goals
20%
Elche 1+ goals
63%
Elche 2+ goals
26%
Elche 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Eibar (draw refunded)
67%
Elche (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 59 matches

Elche away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.83 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar attack 1.24 + Elche defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Elche attack 0.83 + Eibar defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Eibar scores more
50%
level
26%
Elche scores more
24%

Eibar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Eibar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
Edgar BadíaElcheElche · G
7.7

Match Events

10'
Álvaro Tejero
24'
Sergio Álvarez← Recio
28'
Jose Morente
37'
L. Boyé
39'
Josan
46'
E. Burgos← Bigas
47'
Esteban Burgos
50'
KikeGoal cancelled
63'
Quique González← Y. Muto
74'
Unai Arieta← Kike
74'
D. Kądzior← T. Inui
83'
Y. Koné← L. Boyé
89'
Luismi Sánchez← O. Mfulu
90'
Nino← Pere Milla
90+3'
Ramón Folch← Raúl Guti

Possession

61%Eibar

Shots

12Eibar

Pass accuracy

56%Eibar

Statistics

EibarElche
Overview
61%Possession39%
12Total Shots5
3Corners2
9Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots5
4On Target2
7Off Target1
1Blocked2
6Inside Box5
6Outside Box0
Passing
61%Possession39%
504Total Passes331
418Accurate Passes220
83%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Eibar 0 – 1 Elche

Elche beat Eibar 1-0 in La Liga on September 30, 2020.

Goals: L. Boyé (37').

Eibar controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa in Eibar.