Ehime FC 0–1 Tokushima Vortis: Result & Stats

Ehime FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tokushima Vortis

8/3/2024

J2 League · Round 25Ningineer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Ehime FC27%

×Draw28%

Tokushima Vortis45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ehime FCExpected goals in this matchTokushima Vortis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.35

Ehime FC

0.97

Tokushima Vortis

1.35

Tokushima Vortis creates 39% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 147 away

0.92

creates per match

1.19

1.52

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Ehime FC

0.92

Tokushima Vortis

1.19

allows per match

Ehime FC

1.52

Tokushima Vortis

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ehime FC+0.00on par

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ehime FC ↓

Tokushima Vortis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ehime FC or draw

55%

Ehime FC or Tokushima Vortis

72%

Draw or Tokushima Vortis

73%

Winning margin

Ehime FC wins by 2+

10%

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Ehime FC 1+ goals

62%

Ehime FC 2+ goals

25%

Ehime FC 3+ goals

7%

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

74%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

39%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ehime FC (draw refunded)

37%

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ehime FC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 124 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ehime FC attack 0.92 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.97

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + Ehime FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ehime FC scores more

27%

level

28%

Tokushima Vortis scores more

45%

Tokushima Vortis at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff