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Ehime FC vs Kyoto Sanga — J2 League 2018

Ehime FC
Ehime FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
5/20/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 15Ningineer Stadium (Matsuyama)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Ehime FC29%
×Draw27%
Kyoto Sanga43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ehime FC
1.06
Kyoto Sanga
1.35

Kyoto Sanga creates 27% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 89 away

creates per match

Ehime FC
0.92
Kyoto Sanga
1.19

allows per match

Ehime FC
1.52
Kyoto Sanga
1.21

finishing

Ehime FC+0.00on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ehime FC ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ehime FC or draw
57%
Ehime FC or Kyoto Sanga
73%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
71%

Winning margin

Ehime FC wins by 2+
11%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ehime FC 1+ goals
65%
Ehime FC 2+ goals
29%
Ehime FC 3+ goals
9%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
74%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
39%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ehime FC (draw refunded)
40%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ehime FC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 124 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ehime FC attack 0.92 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.19 + Ehime FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ehime FC scores more
29%
level
27%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
43%

Kyoto Sanga at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Ehime FC 1–2 Kyoto Sanga

Kyoto Sanga beat Ehime FC 2-1 in J2 League on May 20, 2018.

The match was played at Ningineer Stadium (Matsuyama).