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EGS Gafsa vs Stade Gabesien — Ligue 2 2020

EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa
FT
2 – 1
Stade Gabesien
Stade Gabesien
3/28/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 9Stade du 7 Novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

EGS Gafsa55%
×Draw28%
Stade Gabesien17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EGS Gafsa
1.38
Stade Gabesien
0.64

EGS Gafsa creates 116% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 60 away

creates per match

EGS Gafsa
1.63
Stade Gabesien
0.73

allows per match

EGS Gafsa
0.55
Stade Gabesien
1.12

finishing

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par
Stade Gabesien+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EGS Gafsa ↓

Stade Gabesien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

EGS Gafsa or draw
83%
EGS Gafsa or Stade Gabesien
72%
Draw or Stade Gabesien
45%

Winning margin

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+
27%
Stade Gabesien wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals
75%
EGS Gafsa 2+ goals
40%
EGS Gafsa 3+ goals
16%
Stade Gabesien 1+ goals
47%
Stade Gabesien 2+ goals
14%
Stade Gabesien 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)
76%
Stade Gabesien (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EGS Gafsa at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.55 · 38 matches

Stade Gabesien away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.12 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EGS Gafsa attack 1.63 + Stade Gabesien defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.38

Stade Gabesien attack 0.73 + EGS Gafsa defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

EGS Gafsa scores more
55%
level
28%
Stade Gabesien scores more
17%

EGS Gafsa at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "EGS Gafsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: EGS Gafsa 2–1 Stade Gabesien

EGS Gafsa beat Stade Gabesien 2-1 in Ligue 2 on March 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du 7 Novembre in Gafsa.