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Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Vllaznia Shkodër — Superliga 2018

Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
12/2/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 15Arena Egnatia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Egnatia Rrogozhinë39%
×Draw30%
Vllaznia Shkodër31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.13
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.97

Egnatia Rrogozhinë creates 16% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 128 away

creates per match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.24
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.97

allows per match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.98
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.02

finishing

Egnatia Rrogozhinë+0.00on par
Vllaznia Shkodër+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egnatia Rrogozhinë ↓

Vllaznia Shkodër →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Egnatia Rrogozhinë or draw
69%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë or Vllaznia Shkodër
70%
Draw or Vllaznia Shkodër
61%

Winning margin

Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins by 2+
16%
Vllaznia Shkodër wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1+ goals
68%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2+ goals
31%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3+ goals
11%
Vllaznia Shkodër 1+ goals
62%
Vllaznia Shkodër 2+ goals
25%
Vllaznia Shkodër 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Egnatia Rrogozhinë (draw refunded)
56%
Vllaznia Shkodër (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.98 · 94 matches

Vllaznia Shkodër away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.02 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack 1.24 + Vllaznia Shkodër defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.13

Vllaznia Shkodër attack 0.97 + Egnatia Rrogozhinë defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Egnatia Rrogozhinë scores more
39%
level
30%
Vllaznia Shkodër scores more
31%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Egnatia Rrogozhinë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Vllaznia Shkodër

Egnatia Rrogozhinë beat Vllaznia Shkodër 3-0 in Superliga on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Egnatia in Rrogozhinë.