Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0–5 Tirana: Result & Stats

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Tirana

12/24/2023

Superliga · Round 18Arena Egnatia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Egnatia Rrogozhinë36%

×Draw28%

Tirana36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Egnatia RrogozhinëExpected goals in this matchTirana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

1.16

Tirana

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 144 away

1.24

creates per match

1.34

0.98

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

1.24

Tirana

1.34

allows per match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

0.98

Tirana

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Egnatia Rrogozhinë+0.00on par

Tirana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egnatia Rrogozhinë ↓

Tirana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Egnatia Rrogozhinë or draw

64%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë or Tirana

72%

Draw or Tirana

64%

Winning margin

Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins by 2+

15%

Tirana wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1+ goals

69%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2+ goals

32%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3+ goals

11%

Tirana 1+ goals

69%

Tirana 2+ goals

32%

Tirana 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Egnatia Rrogozhinë (draw refunded)

50%

Tirana (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.98 · 94 matches

Tirana away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.08 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack 1.24 + Tirana defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Tirana attack 1.34 + Egnatia Rrogozhinë defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Egnatia Rrogozhinë scores more

36%

level

28%

Tirana scores more

36%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Egnatia Rrogozhinë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff