Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1–1 Dinamo Tirana

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Tirana

3/1/2024

Superliga · Round 26Arena Egnatia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Egnatia Rrogozhinë43%

×Draw28%

Dinamo Tirana28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Egnatia RrogozhinëExpected goals in this matchDinamo Tirana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.96

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

1.27

Dinamo Tirana

0.96

Egnatia Rrogozhinë creates 32% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 76 away

1.24

creates per match

0.93

0.98

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

1.24

Dinamo Tirana

0.93

allows per match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

0.98

Dinamo Tirana

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Egnatia Rrogozhinë+0.00on par

Dinamo Tirana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egnatia Rrogozhinë ↓

Dinamo Tirana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Egnatia Rrogozhinë or draw

72%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë or Dinamo Tirana

72%

Draw or Dinamo Tirana

57%

Winning margin

Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins by 2+

20%

Dinamo Tirana wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1+ goals

72%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2+ goals

36%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3+ goals

14%

Dinamo Tirana 1+ goals

62%

Dinamo Tirana 2+ goals

25%

Dinamo Tirana 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Egnatia Rrogozhinë (draw refunded)

61%

Dinamo Tirana (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.98 · 94 matches

Dinamo Tirana away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.30 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack 1.24 + Dinamo Tirana defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Dinamo Tirana attack 0.93 + Egnatia Rrogozhinë defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Egnatia Rrogozhinë scores more

43%

level

28%

Dinamo Tirana scores more

28%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Egnatia Rrogozhinë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff