Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Eendracht Aalst W vs White Star Woluwe W — Super League Women 2018

Eendracht Aalst W
Eendracht Aalst W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
White Star Woluwe W
White Star Woluwe W
1/22/2022Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 15Het Pierre Cornelisstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Eendracht Aalst W50%
×Draw21%
White Star Woluwe W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eendracht Aalst W
2.10
White Star Woluwe W
1.57

Eendracht Aalst W creates 34% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 52 away

creates per match

Eendracht Aalst W
1.05
White Star Woluwe W
0.88

allows per match

Eendracht Aalst W
2.27
White Star Woluwe W
3.15

finishing

Eendracht Aalst W+0.00on par
White Star Woluwe W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eendracht Aalst W ↓

White Star Woluwe W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Eendracht Aalst W or draw
71%
Eendracht Aalst W or White Star Woluwe W
79%
Draw or White Star Woluwe W
50%

Winning margin

Eendracht Aalst W wins by 2+
29%
White Star Woluwe W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Eendracht Aalst W 1+ goals
88%
Eendracht Aalst W 2+ goals
62%
Eendracht Aalst W 3+ goals
35%
White Star Woluwe W 1+ goals
79%
White Star Woluwe W 2+ goals
46%
White Star Woluwe W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Eendracht Aalst W (draw refunded)
63%
White Star Woluwe W (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eendracht Aalst W at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.27 · 40 matches

White Star Woluwe W away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eendracht Aalst W attack 1.05 + White Star Woluwe W defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.10

White Star Woluwe W attack 0.88 + Eendracht Aalst W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Eendracht Aalst W scores more
50%
level
21%
White Star Woluwe W scores more
29%

Eendracht Aalst W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Eendracht Aalst W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eendracht Aalst W vs White Star Woluwe W

White Star Woluwe W beat Eendracht Aalst W 3-2 in Super League Women on January 22, 2022.

The match was played at Het Pierre Cornelisstadion in Aalst.