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Eding Sport vs Fortuna Mfou — Elite One 2019

Eding Sport
Eding Sport
FT
1 – 1
Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
2/17/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Eding Sport40%
×Draw29%
Fortuna Mfou31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eding Sport
1.21
Fortuna Mfou
1.02

Eding Sport creates 19% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 96 away

creates per match

Eding Sport
1.02
Fortuna Mfou
1.09

allows per match

Eding Sport
0.94
Fortuna Mfou
1.39

finishing

Eding Sport+0.00on par
Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eding Sport ↓

Fortuna Mfou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Eding Sport or draw
69%
Eding Sport or Fortuna Mfou
71%
Draw or Fortuna Mfou
60%

Winning margin

Eding Sport wins by 2+
17%
Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Eding Sport 1+ goals
70%
Eding Sport 2+ goals
34%
Eding Sport 3+ goals
12%
Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
64%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
27%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Eding Sport (draw refunded)
57%
Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eding Sport at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.94 · 54 matches

Fortuna Mfou away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eding Sport attack 1.02 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.09 + Eding Sport defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Eding Sport scores more
40%
level
29%
Fortuna Mfou scores more
31%

Eding Sport at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Eding Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Eding Sport 1–1 Fortuna Mfou

Eding Sport and Fortuna Mfou drew 1-1 in Elite One on February 17, 2019.