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Eding Sport vs Cotonsport — Elite One 2019

Eding Sport
Eding Sport
FT
2 – 1
Cotonsport
Cotonsport
3/16/2020Elite OneElite One · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Eding Sport33%
×Draw31%
Cotonsport36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eding Sport
0.95
Cotonsport
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 102 away

creates per match

Eding Sport
1.02
Cotonsport
1.11

allows per match

Eding Sport
0.94
Cotonsport
0.87

finishing

Eding Sport+0.00on par
Cotonsport+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eding Sport ↓

Cotonsport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Eding Sport or draw
64%
Eding Sport or Cotonsport
69%
Draw or Cotonsport
67%

Winning margin

Eding Sport wins by 2+
12%
Cotonsport wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Eding Sport 1+ goals
61%
Eding Sport 2+ goals
25%
Eding Sport 3+ goals
7%
Cotonsport 1+ goals
64%
Cotonsport 2+ goals
27%
Cotonsport 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Eding Sport (draw refunded)
47%
Cotonsport (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eding Sport at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.94 · 54 matches

Cotonsport away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.87 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eding Sport attack 1.02 + Cotonsport defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.95

Cotonsport attack 1.11 + Eding Sport defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Eding Sport scores more
33%
level
31%
Cotonsport scores more
36%

Cotonsport at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Cotonsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eding Sport vs Cotonsport

Eding Sport beat Cotonsport 2-1 in Elite One on March 16, 2020.