Edgeworth Eagles 0–2 Lambton Jaffas: Result & Stats

Edgeworth Eagles

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lambton Jaffas

3/9/2024

Northern NSW NPL · Round 3Jack McLaughlan Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Edgeworth Eagles43%

×Draw24%

Lambton Jaffas33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Edgeworth EaglesExpected goals in this matchLambton Jaffas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.39

Edgeworth Eagles

1.63

Lambton Jaffas

1.39

Edgeworth Eagles creates 17% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 83 away

2.11

creates per match

1.92

0.85

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Edgeworth Eagles

2.11

Lambton Jaffas

1.92

allows per match

Edgeworth Eagles

0.85

Lambton Jaffas

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Edgeworth Eagles+0.00on par

Lambton Jaffas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edgeworth Eagles ↓

Lambton Jaffas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Edgeworth Eagles or draw

67%

Edgeworth Eagles or Lambton Jaffas

76%

Draw or Lambton Jaffas

57%

Winning margin

Edgeworth Eagles wins by 2+

22%

Lambton Jaffas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Edgeworth Eagles 1+ goals

80%

Edgeworth Eagles 2+ goals

48%

Edgeworth Eagles 3+ goals

22%

Lambton Jaffas 1+ goals

75%

Lambton Jaffas 2+ goals

40%

Lambton Jaffas 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Edgeworth Eagles (draw refunded)

57%

Lambton Jaffas (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edgeworth Eagles at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.85 · 81 matches

Lambton Jaffas away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.16 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edgeworth Eagles attack 2.11 + Lambton Jaffas defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.63

Lambton Jaffas attack 1.92 + Edgeworth Eagles defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Edgeworth Eagles scores more

43%

level

24%

Lambton Jaffas scores more

33%

Edgeworth Eagles at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Edgeworth Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff