Edf Logrono W vs Real Madrid W

Edf Logrono W

Preview

15:00

Real Madrid W

4/4/2027

Primera División Femenina · Round 25

64%

Real Madrid W

model favours

16%20%64%

Edf Logrono W sit 14, Real Madrid W 2 in the table

brightest fact of this match

0–2

likely score

59%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Edf Logrono W16%

×Draw20%

Real Madrid W64%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Edf Logrono WExpected goals in this matchReal Madrid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

2.13

Edf Logrono W

0.96

Real Madrid W

2.13

Real Madrid W creates 122% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 92 away

1.00

creates per match

2.29

1.97

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Edf Logrono W

1.00

Real Madrid W

2.29

allows per match

Edf Logrono W

1.97

Real Madrid W

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Edf Logrono W+0.00on par

Real Madrid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edf Logrono W ↓

Real Madrid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Edf Logrono W or draw

36%

Edf Logrono W or Real Madrid W

80%

Draw or Real Madrid W

84%

Winning margin

Edf Logrono W wins by 2+

5%

Real Madrid W wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Edf Logrono W 1+ goals

62%

Edf Logrono W 2+ goals

25%

Edf Logrono W 3+ goals

7%

Real Madrid W 1+ goals

88%

Real Madrid W 2+ goals

63%

Real Madrid W 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Edf Logrono W (draw refunded)

20%

Real Madrid W (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edf Logrono W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.97 · 34 matches

Real Madrid W away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edf Logrono W attack 1.00 + Real Madrid W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Real Madrid W attack 2.29 + Edf Logrono W defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Edf Logrono W scores more

16%

level

20%

Real Madrid W scores more

64%

Real Madrid W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Real Madrid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

W

LLWWD

W

WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff