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Edf Logrono W vs Granad. Tenerife W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Edf Logrono W
Edf Logrono W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Granad. Tenerife W
Granad. Tenerife W
2/10/2019Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 20Estadio Mundial 82 (Logroño)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Edf Logrono W38%
×Draw25%
Granad. Tenerife W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Edf Logrono W
1.46
Granad. Tenerife W
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 117 away

creates per match

Edf Logrono W
1.34
Granad. Tenerife W
1.21

allows per match

Edf Logrono W
1.72
Granad. Tenerife W
1.58

finishing

Edf Logrono W+0.00on par
Granad. Tenerife W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edf Logrono W ↓

Granad. Tenerife W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Edf Logrono W or draw
62%
Edf Logrono W or Granad. Tenerife W
75%
Draw or Granad. Tenerife W
62%

Winning margin

Edf Logrono W wins by 2+
18%
Granad. Tenerife W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Edf Logrono W 1+ goals
77%
Edf Logrono W 2+ goals
43%
Edf Logrono W 3+ goals
18%
Granad. Tenerife W 1+ goals
77%
Granad. Tenerife W 2+ goals
43%
Granad. Tenerife W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Edf Logrono W (draw refunded)
50%
Granad. Tenerife W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edf Logrono W at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.72 · 58 matches

Granad. Tenerife W away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.58 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edf Logrono W attack 1.34 + Granad. Tenerife W defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Granad. Tenerife W attack 1.21 + Edf Logrono W defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Edf Logrono W scores more
38%
level
25%
Granad. Tenerife W scores more
38%

Edf Logrono W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Edf Logrono W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Edf Logrono W 0–1 Granad. Tenerife W

Granad. Tenerife W beat Edf Logrono W 1-0 in Primera División Femenina on February 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Mundial 82 (Logroño).