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EC São Bernardo U20 vs Velo Clube U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

EC São Bernardo U20
EC São Bernardo U20
Preview
18:00
Velo Clube U20
Velo Clube U20
8/21/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 13
49%
EC São Bernardo U20
model favours
49%26%25%

70% of EC São Bernardo U20’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

EC São Bernardo U2049%
×Draw26%
Velo Clube U2025%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EC São Bernardo U20
1.50
Velo Clube U20
1.00

EC São Bernardo U20 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

creates per match

EC São Bernardo U20
1.61
Velo Clube U20
0.95

allows per match

EC São Bernardo U20
1.06
Velo Clube U20
1.40

finishing

EC São Bernardo U20+0.00on par
Velo Clube U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EC São Bernardo U20 ↓

Velo Clube U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

EC São Bernardo U20 or draw
75%
EC São Bernardo U20 or Velo Clube U20
74%
Draw or Velo Clube U20
51%

Winning margin

EC São Bernardo U20 wins by 2+
25%
Velo Clube U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

EC São Bernardo U20 1+ goals
78%
EC São Bernardo U20 2+ goals
44%
EC São Bernardo U20 3+ goals
19%
Velo Clube U20 1+ goals
63%
Velo Clube U20 2+ goals
26%
Velo Clube U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

EC São Bernardo U20 (draw refunded)
66%
Velo Clube U20 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EC São Bernardo U20 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Velo Clube U20 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EC São Bernardo U20 attack 1.61 + Velo Clube U20 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Velo Clube U20 attack 0.95 + EC São Bernardo U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

EC São Bernardo U20 scores more
49%
level
26%
Velo Clube U20 scores more
25%

EC São Bernardo U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "EC São Bernardo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
DLLLD
U20
LDDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

EC São Bernardo U20 face Velo Clube U20 (Paulista - U20)

Paulista - U20 returns with EC São Bernardo U20 hosting Velo Clube U20. Match starts August 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.