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EC São Bernardo U20 vs Novorizontino U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

EC São Bernardo U20
EC São Bernardo U20
Preview
18:00
Novorizontino U20
Novorizontino U20
7/31/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 9
44%
Novorizontino U20
model favours
31%25%44%

Novorizontino U20 score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

EC São Bernardo U2031%
×Draw25%
Novorizontino U2044%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EC São Bernardo U20
1.27
Novorizontino U20
1.57

Novorizontino U20 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 25 away

creates per match

EC São Bernardo U20
1.61
Novorizontino U20
2.08

allows per match

EC São Bernardo U20
1.06
Novorizontino U20
0.92

finishing

EC São Bernardo U20+0.00on par
Novorizontino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EC São Bernardo U20 ↓

Novorizontino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

EC São Bernardo U20 or draw
56%
EC São Bernardo U20 or Novorizontino U20
75%
Draw or Novorizontino U20
69%

Winning margin

EC São Bernardo U20 wins by 2+
13%
Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

EC São Bernardo U20 1+ goals
72%
EC São Bernardo U20 2+ goals
36%
EC São Bernardo U20 3+ goals
14%
Novorizontino U20 1+ goals
79%
Novorizontino U20 2+ goals
46%
Novorizontino U20 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

EC São Bernardo U20 (draw refunded)
41%
Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EC São Bernardo U20 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Novorizontino U20 away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EC São Bernardo U20 attack 1.61 + Novorizontino U20 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.27

Novorizontino U20 attack 2.08 + EC São Bernardo U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

EC São Bernardo U20 scores more
31%
level
25%
Novorizontino U20 scores more
44%

Novorizontino U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Novorizontino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 70% of EC São Bernardo U20’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • EC São Bernardo U20 sit 39, Novorizontino U20 19 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
DLLLD
U20
DWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

EC São Bernardo U20 face Novorizontino U20 (Paulista - U20)

Paulista - U20 returns with EC São Bernardo U20 hosting Novorizontino U20. Match starts July 31, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.