EC São Bernardo U20 vs Bandeirante U20

EC São Bernardo U20

Preview

18:00

Bandeirante U20

9/4/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 14

55%

EC São Bernardo U20

model favours

55%23%22%

Bandeirante U20 score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

over 2.5 goals

53%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

EC São Bernardo U2055%

×Draw23%

Bandeirante U2022%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EC São Bernardo U20Expected goals in this matchBandeirante U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.03

EC São Bernardo U20

1.77

Bandeirante U20

1.03

EC São Bernardo U20 creates 72% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

1.61

creates per match

1.00

1.06

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

EC São Bernardo U20

1.61

Bandeirante U20

1.00

allows per match

EC São Bernardo U20

1.06

Bandeirante U20

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EC São Bernardo U20+0.00on par

Bandeirante U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EC São Bernardo U20 ↓

Bandeirante U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

EC São Bernardo U20 or draw

78%

EC São Bernardo U20 or Bandeirante U20

77%

Draw or Bandeirante U20

45%

Winning margin

EC São Bernardo U20 wins by 2+

31%

Bandeirante U20 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

EC São Bernardo U20 1+ goals

83%

EC São Bernardo U20 2+ goals

53%

EC São Bernardo U20 3+ goals

26%

Bandeirante U20 1+ goals

64%

Bandeirante U20 2+ goals

28%

Bandeirante U20 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

EC São Bernardo U20 (draw refunded)

71%

Bandeirante U20 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EC São Bernardo U20 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Bandeirante U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EC São Bernardo U20 attack 1.61 + Bandeirante U20 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.77

Bandeirante U20 attack 1.00 + EC São Bernardo U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

EC São Bernardo U20 scores more

55%

level

23%

Bandeirante U20 scores more

22%

EC São Bernardo U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "EC São Bernardo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

70% of EC São Bernardo U20’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
EC São Bernardo U20 sit 39, Bandeirante U20 24 in the table
EC São Bernardo U20 and Bandeirante U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U20

DLLLD

U20

WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff