EB / Streymur 1–1 HB Torshavn: Result & Stats

EB / Streymur

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

HB Torshavn

5/9/2024

Løgmanssteypid · Quarter-finalsVið Margáir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

EB / Streymur23%

×Draw18%

HB Torshavn59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EB / StreymurExpected goals in this matchHB Torshavn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

2.81

EB / Streymur

1.73

HB Torshavn

2.81

HB Torshavn creates 62% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

2.29

creates per match

2.33

3.29

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

EB / Streymur

2.29

HB Torshavn

2.33

allows per match

EB / Streymur

3.29

HB Torshavn

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EB / Streymur+0.00on par

HB Torshavn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EB / Streymur ↓

HB Torshavn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

EB / Streymur or draw

41%

EB / Streymur or HB Torshavn

82%

Draw or HB Torshavn

77%

Winning margin

EB / Streymur wins by 2+

11%

HB Torshavn wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

EB / Streymur 1+ goals

82%

EB / Streymur 2+ goals

52%

EB / Streymur 3+ goals

25%

HB Torshavn 1+ goals

94%

HB Torshavn 2+ goals

76%

HB Torshavn 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

EB / Streymur (draw refunded)

28%

HB Torshavn (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EB / Streymur at home — creates 2.29, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

HB Torshavn away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EB / Streymur attack 2.29 + HB Torshavn defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.73

HB Torshavn attack 2.33 + EB / Streymur defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 2.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

EB / Streymur scores more

23%

level

18%

HB Torshavn scores more

59%

HB Torshavn at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "HB Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff