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EB / Streymur vs B68 — Meistaradeildin 2019

EB / Streymur
EB / Streymur
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
B68
B68
3/17/2024MeistaradeildinMeistaradeildin · Round 2Við Margáir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

EB / Streymur41%
×Draw24%
B6836%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EB / Streymur
1.64
B68
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 75 away

creates per match

EB / Streymur
1.12
B68
1.07

allows per match

EB / Streymur
1.97
B68
2.16

finishing

EB / Streymur+0.00on par
B68+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EB / Streymur ↓

B68 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

EB / Streymur or draw
64%
EB / Streymur or B68
76%
Draw or B68
59%

Winning margin

EB / Streymur wins by 2+
21%
B68 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

EB / Streymur 1+ goals
81%
EB / Streymur 2+ goals
49%
EB / Streymur 3+ goals
23%
B68 1+ goals
78%
B68 2+ goals
45%
B68 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

EB / Streymur (draw refunded)
53%
B68 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EB / Streymur at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.97 · 103 matches

B68 away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.16 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EB / Streymur attack 1.12 + B68 defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.64

B68 attack 1.07 + EB / Streymur defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

EB / Streymur scores more
41%
level
24%
B68 scores more
36%

EB / Streymur at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "EB / Streymur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meistaradeildin: EB / Streymur 1–1 B68

EB / Streymur and B68 drew 1-1 in Meistaradeildin on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Við Margáir in Streymnes, Streymoy.