Eastern Lions 1–1 Kingston City: Result & Stats

Eastern Lions

FT

1 – 1

Kingston City

6/24/2023

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 19Gardiners Creek Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Eastern Lions42%

×Draw22%

Kingston City36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eastern LionsExpected goals in this matchKingston City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.68

Eastern Lions

1.83

Kingston City

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 57 away

1.49

creates per match

1.74

1.62

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Eastern Lions

1.49

Kingston City

1.74

allows per match

Eastern Lions

1.62

Kingston City

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eastern Lions+0.00on par

Kingston City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern Lions ↓

Kingston City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Eastern Lions or draw

64%

Eastern Lions or Kingston City

78%

Draw or Kingston City

58%

Winning margin

Eastern Lions wins by 2+

22%

Kingston City wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Eastern Lions 1+ goals

84%

Eastern Lions 2+ goals

54%

Eastern Lions 3+ goals

28%

Kingston City 1+ goals

81%

Kingston City 2+ goals

50%

Kingston City 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Eastern Lions (draw refunded)

54%

Kingston City (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern Lions at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.62 · 39 matches

Kingston City away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern Lions attack 1.49 + Kingston City defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.83

Kingston City attack 1.74 + Eastern Lions defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Eastern Lions scores more

42%

level

22%

Kingston City scores more

36%

Eastern Lions at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Eastern Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff