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East Fife vs Stenhousemuir — League Cup 2018

East Fife
East Fife
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
7/20/2019League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 5Bayview Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

East Fife66%
×Draw19%
Stenhousemuir15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

East Fife
2.25
Stenhousemuir
0.99

East Fife creates 127% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

East Fife
1.87
Stenhousemuir
0.71

allows per match

East Fife
1.27
Stenhousemuir
2.64

finishing

East Fife+0.00on par
Stenhousemuir+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Fife ↓

Stenhousemuir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

East Fife or draw
85%
East Fife or Stenhousemuir
81%
Draw or Stenhousemuir
34%

Winning margin

East Fife wins by 2+
42%
Stenhousemuir wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

East Fife 1+ goals
89%
East Fife 2+ goals
65%
East Fife 3+ goals
39%
Stenhousemuir 1+ goals
63%
Stenhousemuir 2+ goals
26%
Stenhousemuir 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

East Fife (draw refunded)
81%
Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Fife at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Stenhousemuir away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Fife attack 1.87 + Stenhousemuir defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.25

Stenhousemuir attack 0.71 + East Fife defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

East Fife scores more
66%
level
19%
Stenhousemuir scores more
15%

East Fife at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "East Fife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: East Fife vs Stenhousemuir

East Fife beat Stenhousemuir 2-0 in League Cup on July 20, 2019.

The match was played at Bayview Stadium in Methil.