Torns 2–0 Utsikten: Result & Stats | Ettan - Södra

Torns

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Utsikten

D. Mesic 88', 79'

8/18/2018

Ettan - Södra · Round 18Tornvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Torns43%

×Draw25%

Utsikten33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TornsExpected goals in this matchUtsikten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.33

Torns

1.56

Utsikten

1.33

Torns creates 17% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 54 away

1.46

creates per match

1.35

1.31

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Torns

1.46

Utsikten

1.35

allows per match

Torns

1.31

Utsikten

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torns+0.00on par

Utsikten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torns ↓

Utsikten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Torns or draw

67%

Torns or Utsikten

75%

Draw or Utsikten

57%

Winning margin

Torns wins by 2+

21%

Utsikten wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Torns 1+ goals

79%

Torns 2+ goals

46%

Torns 3+ goals

21%

Utsikten 1+ goals

74%

Utsikten 2+ goals

38%

Utsikten 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Torns (draw refunded)

57%

Utsikten (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torns at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.31 · 87 matches

Utsikten away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.67 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torns attack 1.46 + Utsikten defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.56

Utsikten attack 1.35 + Torns defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Torns scores more

43%

level

25%

Utsikten scores more

33%

Torns at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Torns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

A. Johansson← A. Fioretos

61'

D. Mesic← T. Karlsson

76'

M. Evensen← A. Öhman

79'

D. Mesic

82'

K. Mustafa← A. Harvey

88'

D. Mesic

90+3'

O. Ahlgren← A. Seljmani

Torns

Utsikten

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Ringhov

61'▲A. Johansson←▼A. Fioretos

61'▲D. Mesic←▼T. Karlsson

90+3'▲O. Ahlgren←▼A. Seljmani

Torns substitutes

JohanssonMesicAhlgrenSjöbergLundbergHamid

Manager: S. Rehn

76'▲M. Evensen←▼A. Öhman

82'▲K. Mustafa←▼A. Harvey

Utsikten substitutes

EvensenMustafaIbrahimovicZaloLaiHylénJonsson