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East Atlanta vs Peachtree City — USL League Two 2018

East Atlanta
East Atlanta
PST
23:30
Peachtree City
Peachtree City
6/27/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 42RYSA Soccerplex Field 1 (Conyers, Georgia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

East Atlanta44%
×Draw23%
Peachtree City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

East Atlanta
1.77
Peachtree City
1.49

East Atlanta creates 19% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 20 away

creates per match

East Atlanta
1.39
Peachtree City
0.90

allows per match

East Atlanta
2.08
Peachtree City
2.15

finishing

East Atlanta+0.00on par
Peachtree City+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

East Atlanta ↓

Peachtree City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

East Atlanta or draw
67%
East Atlanta or Peachtree City
77%
Draw or Peachtree City
56%

Winning margin

East Atlanta wins by 2+
24%
Peachtree City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

East Atlanta 1+ goals
83%
East Atlanta 2+ goals
53%
East Atlanta 3+ goals
26%
Peachtree City 1+ goals
77%
Peachtree City 2+ goals
44%
Peachtree City 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

East Atlanta (draw refunded)
58%
Peachtree City (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

East Atlanta at home — creates 1.39, concedes 2.08 · 38 matches

Peachtree City away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

East Atlanta attack 1.39 + Peachtree City defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.77

Peachtree City attack 0.90 + East Atlanta defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

East Atlanta scores more
44%
level
23%
Peachtree City scores more
33%

East Atlanta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "East Atlanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

East Atlanta face Peachtree City (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with East Atlanta hosting Peachtree City. Match starts June 27, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

East Atlanta host Peachtree City at RYSA Soccerplex Field 1 (Conyers, Georgia).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.