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Džiugas Telšiai vs Suduva Marijampole — A Lyga 2026

Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
Preview
16:15
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
8/17/2026A LygaA Lyga · Round 27Telsiai Central Stadium
Big match
42%
Suduva Marijampole
model favours
31%26%42%

Suduva Marijampole are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Džiugas Telšiai31%
×Draw26%
Suduva Marijampole42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Džiugas Telšiai
1.17
Suduva Marijampole
1.40

Suduva Marijampole creates 20% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 125 away

creates per match

Džiugas Telšiai
1.07
Suduva Marijampole
1.40

allows per match

Džiugas Telšiai
1.39
Suduva Marijampole
1.26

finishing

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par
Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 53Over: 4753%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Džiugas Telšiai ↓

Suduva Marijampole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Džiugas Telšiai or draw
58%
Džiugas Telšiai or Suduva Marijampole
74%
Draw or Suduva Marijampole
69%

Winning margin

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
13%
Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
69%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
33%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
11%
Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals
75%
Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals
41%
Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
43%
Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Džiugas Telšiai at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.39 · 104 matches

Suduva Marijampole away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.07 + Suduva Marijampole defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Suduva Marijampole attack 1.40 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Džiugas Telšiai scores more
31%
level
26%
Suduva Marijampole scores more
42%

Suduva Marijampole at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Suduva Marijampole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Suduva Marijampole score first in only 20% of matches
  • Džiugas Telšiai score first in only 21% of matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Džiugas Telšiai 4 vs Suduva Marijampole 3
  • 37% of Džiugas Telšiai’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Suduva Marijampole matches are rarely goalless — only 4% end 0-0
  • 33% of Suduva Marijampole’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Telšiai
WDD
Marijampole
WD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Džiugas Telšiai face Suduva Marijampole (A Lyga)

A Lyga returns with Džiugas Telšiai hosting Suduva Marijampole. Match starts August 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Džiugas Telšiai host Suduva Marijampole at Telsiai Central Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.