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Džiugas Telšiai vs Suduva Marijampole — A Lyga 2026

Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Suduva Marijampole
Suduva Marijampole
3/16/2024A LygaA Lyga · Round 4Telšių dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Džiugas Telšiai32%
×Draw26%
Suduva Marijampole42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Džiugas Telšiai
1.19
Suduva Marijampole
1.40

Suduva Marijampole creates 18% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 127 away

creates per match

Džiugas Telšiai
1.07
Suduva Marijampole
1.39

allows per match

Džiugas Telšiai
1.41
Suduva Marijampole
1.30

finishing

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par
Suduva Marijampole+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Džiugas Telšiai ↓

Suduva Marijampole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Džiugas Telšiai or draw
58%
Džiugas Telšiai or Suduva Marijampole
74%
Draw or Suduva Marijampole
68%

Winning margin

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
13%
Suduva Marijampole wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
70%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
33%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
12%
Suduva Marijampole 1+ goals
75%
Suduva Marijampole 2+ goals
41%
Suduva Marijampole 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
43%
Suduva Marijampole (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Džiugas Telšiai at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

Suduva Marijampole away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.30 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.07 + Suduva Marijampole defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Suduva Marijampole attack 1.39 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Džiugas Telšiai scores more
32%
level
26%
Suduva Marijampole scores more
42%

Suduva Marijampole at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Suduva Marijampole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Džiugas Telšiai vs Suduva Marijampole

Džiugas Telšiai beat Suduva Marijampole 1-0 in A Lyga on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Telšių dirbtinės dangos stadionas in Telšiai.