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Džiugas Telšiai vs Šiauliai — A Lyga 2026

Džiugas Telšiai
Džiugas Telšiai
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Šiauliai
Šiauliai
11/4/2023A LygaA Lyga · Round 35Telšių dirbtinės dangos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Džiugas Telšiai36%
×Draw27%
Šiauliai37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Džiugas Telšiai
1.26
Šiauliai
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 84 away

creates per match

Džiugas Telšiai
1.07
Šiauliai
1.13

allows per match

Džiugas Telšiai
1.41
Šiauliai
1.45

finishing

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par
Šiauliai+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Džiugas Telšiai ↓

Šiauliai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Džiugas Telšiai or draw
63%
Džiugas Telšiai or Šiauliai
73%
Draw or Šiauliai
64%

Winning margin

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+
16%
Šiauliai wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals
72%
Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals
36%
Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals
13%
Šiauliai 1+ goals
72%
Šiauliai 2+ goals
36%
Šiauliai 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)
50%
Šiauliai (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Džiugas Telšiai at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

Šiauliai away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.45 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.07 + Šiauliai defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.26

Šiauliai attack 1.13 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Džiugas Telšiai scores more
36%
level
27%
Šiauliai scores more
37%

Šiauliai at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Šiauliai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Džiugas Telšiai vs Šiauliai

Džiugas Telšiai and Šiauliai drew 3-3 in A Lyga on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Telšių dirbtinės dangos stadionas in Telšiai.