Džiugas Telšiai vs Hegelmann Litauen

Džiugas Telšiai

Preview

15:45

Hegelmann Litauen

8/31/2026

A Lyga · Round 29Telsiai Central Stadium

Big match

41%

Hegelmann Litauen

model favours

32%26%41%

Džiugas Telšiai score first in only 21% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

52%

under 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Džiugas Telšiai32%

×Draw26%

Hegelmann Litauen41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Džiugas TelšiaiExpected goals in this matchHegelmann Litauen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.39

Džiugas Telšiai

1.20

Hegelmann Litauen

1.39

Hegelmann Litauen creates 16% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 101 away

1.07

creates per match

1.39

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Džiugas Telšiai

1.07

Hegelmann Litauen

1.39

allows per match

Džiugas Telšiai

1.39

Hegelmann Litauen

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Hegelmann Litauen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Džiugas Telšiai ↓

Hegelmann Litauen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Džiugas Telšiai or draw

59%

Džiugas Telšiai or Hegelmann Litauen

74%

Draw or Hegelmann Litauen

68%

Winning margin

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

13%

Hegelmann Litauen wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

70%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

34%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

12%

Hegelmann Litauen 1+ goals

75%

Hegelmann Litauen 2+ goals

40%

Hegelmann Litauen 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

44%

Hegelmann Litauen (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Džiugas Telšiai at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.39 · 104 matches

Hegelmann Litauen away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.32 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.07 + Hegelmann Litauen defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.20

Hegelmann Litauen attack 1.39 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

32%

level

26%

Hegelmann Litauen scores more

41%

Hegelmann Litauen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hegelmann Litauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Hegelmann Litauen score first in only 21% of matches
Hegelmann Litauen win just 14% of their away games
Hegelmann Litauen win just 31% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)
37% of Džiugas Telšiai’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Telšiai

WDD

Litauen

WLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff